Chad: Country Report | 2024

AI Generated Analysis based on UNHCR Forced Displacement Statisitics.

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Executive Summary

Population Overview

Population Overview: The Sudan Crisis Reshapes Chad’s Humanitarian Landscape

The humanitarian landscape in Chad was profoundly reshaped in the past year, driven by the devastating conflict in neighboring Sudan. The data reveals a staggering increase in the number of forcibly displaced individuals seeking safety within its borders, placing immense strain on one of the world’s most fragile regions. By early 2024, the total population of concern to UNHCR in Chad had swelled to over 1.8 million people.

This dramatic shift is primarily a refugee crisis. A historic influx, beginning in 2023 and accelerating into 2024, saw the refugee population more than double, reaching nearly 1.3 million. This surge has made refugees the overwhelming majority—constituting 70 per cent—of all persons of concern in the country, eclipsing other populations such as internally displaced persons (IDPs). The scale of this influx is stark: between the start of 2023 and 2024 alone, the number of refugees and asylum-seekers grew by over 216,000, driving a net increase of more than 402,000 people of concern in a single year.

The origin of this displacement is unequivocal. Of the nearly 1.3 million refugees hosted in Chad, over 1.1 million are from Sudan. This single group overwhelmingly outnumbers all other refugee origins combined, highlighting how the spillover from one conflict has redefined the protection environment in an entire country.

Behind these stark numbers lies a unique and challenging demographic profile. The displaced population is exceptionally young, as indicated by a bottom-heavy population pyramid. The data also reveals a significant gender imbalance, with one male age group alone constituting nearly 39 per cent of the total. This demographic structure presents specific protection risks and necessitates tailored humanitarian programming. The sudden arrival of such a large, youthful population in Chad’s resource-scarce eastern regions presents a monumental challenge for host communities and humanitarian actors alike, widening the gap between acute needs and available resources.

Demographics

AI Insight: Treemap of the population of concern in Chad by type, where refugees constitute the overwhelming majority of the total 1.825 million individuals., This treemap visualizes the composition of the 1,825,000 individuals categorized as populations of concern to UNHCR in Chad as of 2024. The chart is comprised of seven rectangular areas, where the size of each rectangle is proportional to the number of people in that specific population group. The data clearly shows a distribution dominated by a single category. Refugees represent the largest group, numbering 1,278,866 individuals, which accounts for approximately 70% of the total population of concern. The other six categories, which include Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), Asylum-seekers, Returned Refugees, and others, collectively make up the remaining 30% (approximately 546,000 individuals). The statistical profile indicates a highly skewed distribution, with a median population size of 7,779 across the categories, emphasizing the significant scale difference between the refugee population and the other groups.

AI Insight: Population pyramid of persons of concern in Chad by age and gender, where the population is extremely young and shows a significant male majority, driven by a single male age group that represents nearly 39% of the total., This population pyramid displays the age and gender distribution for the 11,091,640 refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, and other persons of concern in Chad as of 2024. The vertical axis represents six distinct age groups, while the horizontal axis shows the percentage of the population, with females on the left and males on the right.

The overall structure is bottom-heavy, indicating an extremely youthful population. A detailed statistical analysis reveals a significant gender imbalance. The male population shows a mean percentage of 11.0% per age group, considerably higher than the female mean of 6.8%. The most prominent feature of this distribution is a major outlier in the male demographic, where a single age group constitutes 38.9% of the total population. In contrast, the largest corresponding female age group accounts for 15.4%. Most other age groups for both genders fall below 10%. There is one missing data point for the female population in one of the age brackets. This demographic profile highlights critical protection and programming considerations, particularly concerning the large, concentrated male cohort.

Geography & Movements

Geography & Movements

The geography of displacement in the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin regions highlights the immense pressures faced by countries at the nexus of multiple, overlapping crises. The data reveals Chad’s critical role as both a major country of asylum and a source of displaced populations, with recent events fundamentally altering the humanitarian landscape.

The most dramatic shift has been the mass influx of refugees fleeing the conflict that erupted in Sudan in April 2023. By 2024, over 1.1 million Sudanese refugees had sought safety in Chad, a figure that dwarfs all other refugee populations in the country. This sudden and massive movement has transformed Chad into a primary host for one of the world’s largest new displacement emergencies. The scale of this influx is layered upon more protracted situations, including long-standing refugee populations from the Central African Republic and a significant number of internally displaced Chadians grappling with insecurity and the effects of climate change within their own borders.

At the same time, the patterns of movement for those forced to flee from Chad reveal a story of acute regional concentration. The vast majority of displaced Chadians are hosted in a small number of neighbouring countries, underscoring the regional nature of the crisis. Behind these stark numbers, the data shows a deeply skewed distribution; while 51 countries host at least some displaced people from Chad, 75 per cent of these nations host fewer than 150 individuals each. This vast disparity illustrates the disproportionate responsibility shouldered by a few key asylum states immediately bordering Chad.

This dual reality—absorbing one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing refugee flows while its own displaced population is concentrated just beyond its borders—places Chad and its neighbours at the epicentre of an escalating regional emergency, stretching humanitarian capacity to its limits.

AI Insight: Choropleth map of destination countries for displaced populations from Chad as of 2024, where the vast majority of people are located in a small number of countries., This choropleth map illustrates the global distribution of displaced populations originating from Chad as of 2024. The data encompasses several categories of people of concern to UNHCR, including refugees, asylum-seekers, and others in need of international protection. The map uses a color scale to represent the number of individuals in each destination country.

Analysis of the underlying data for the 51 countries with available information reveals a highly concentrated pattern of displacement. The number of people from Chad in a destination country ranges from a minimum of 5 to a maximum of 537,889.

The distribution is extremely right-skewed. The median number of individuals per host country is only 28, with 75% of countries hosting 142 or fewer people. In contrast, the mean is approximately 11,300, heavily inflated by the outlier country with the maximum population. This vast difference between the median and the mean underscores that a very small number of countries shelter the vast majority of Chad’s displaced population.

This concentration suggests that displacement from Chad is primarily a regional crisis, with most people seeking refuge in neighboring countries. The map visually highlights these key host nations, which bear a disproportionate responsibility for supporting those who have fled.

Origin of Displaced Populations

AI Insight: Horizontal bar chart of the number of refugees in Chad by their top 9 countries of origin in 2024, where the refugee population is overwhelmingly from Sudan, accounting for over 1.1 million people., This horizontal bar chart details the populations of refugees in Chad from the top nine countries of origin for the year 2024. The data highlights a stark disparity in the scale of displacement from different nations.

Statistical Analysis: The total number of refugees is dominated by a single country of origin, Sudan, with 1,109,357 individuals. This figure represents the maximum value in the dataset and is an order of magnitude larger than any other group. The next largest refugee population is significantly smaller, followed by a steep drop-off for the remaining countries. The median (50th percentile) population size from a country of origin is 547, and 75% of the listed origin countries have populations below 18,378. The smallest refugee group listed consists of just 25 people.

Context: The overwhelming number of refugees from Sudan is a direct result of the ongoing conflict that began in April 2023, which has forced hundreds of thousands to seek safety in neighboring Chad. The figures for other countries, such as the Central African Republic and Cameroon, reflect more protracted refugee situations stemming from long-term regional instability. This visualization underscores the critical and immense scale of the Sudanese crisis and its impact on Chad as a primary host country.

AI Insight: Alluvial plot of the forcibly displaced population in Chad by origin from 2019 to 2025, where the total population dramatically increases due to a massive influx of refugees from Sudan starting in 2023., This alluvial plot visualizes the evolution of the forcibly displaced population hosted in Chad from 2019 to 2025, segmented by country of origin. The data illustrates a significant shift in the demographic composition and a dramatic increase in the total population over this period.

The population is categorized into four origins: Sudan, Central African Republic (C.A.R.), Chad (representing Internally Displaced Persons, or IDPs), and ‘Other’.

Key Trends: - Overall Growth: The total forcibly displaced population in Chad experiences exponential growth, particularly from 2023 onwards. - Sudanese Refugees: This is the most dynamic group. Prior to 2023, the Sudanese refugee population was substantial but relatively stable. Following the outbreak of conflict in Sudan in April 2023, there is a massive and abrupt increase in their numbers, making them the largest displaced group in Chad by a wide margin by 2024. The maximum value in the dataset, 1,262,145 people, is attributable to this influx. - C.A.R. Refugees: The population from the Central African Republic represents a more protracted displacement situation and remains relatively stable in size throughout the observed years. - Chadian IDPs: The number of internally displaced Chadians is significant and shows some fluctuation over the period, reflecting the internal security and climate challenges within the country. - Other Origins: This group constitutes the smallest portion of the displaced population and remains consistently low across the timeline.

In summary, the chart highlights Chad’s critical role as a host country for refugees. While it has long hosted populations from C.A.R. and Sudan, the scale of the recent Sudanese crisis has fundamentally altered the humanitarian landscape, drastically increasing the overall number of displaced people and shifting the primary country of origin from a balanced mix to being predominantly Sudanese.

Destination

AI Insight: Bar chart of the top 10 destination countries for forcibly displaced people from Chad, where the primary destination hosts a vastly disproportionate number of people compared to the others., This vertical bar chart displays the top ten destination countries for people forcibly displaced from Chad as of 2024. The data reveals a highly skewed distribution, with one country hosting a significantly larger population than all others. The number of displaced people across these ten countries ranges from a minimum of 21,164 to a maximum of 4,777,563. The large discrepancy between the median number of displaced people (154,564) and the mean (826,082) is driven by the top destination, which hosts nearly 4.8 million people. The remaining nine countries host considerably fewer individuals, with 75% of the countries on this list hosting fewer than 1.05 million people. The chart’s primary insight is the extreme concentration of the displaced population from Chad in a single asylum country.

Asylum System

Strained Asylum Systems in the Face of New Crises

The data reveals an asylum system in Chad grappling with an unprecedented surge in new claims, a direct consequence of the escalating conflict in neighbouring Sudan. After years of moderate caseloads, applications spiked dramatically, with one recent year recording over 8,000 cases—a figure far exceeding the statistical norm and underscoring the immense protection needs generated by the crisis. This influx has placed immense pressure on national processing capacities. Analysis of cumulative data shows that new applications have consistently outpaced the number of first instance decisions rendered, leading to a significant and growing backlog. This widening gap between arrivals and processing capacity threatens to prolong uncertainty for thousands of vulnerable people awaiting a decision on their future.

Behind these stark numbers, the outcomes for individuals vary significantly. A detailed examination of 25,161 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions in 2024 shows the complex pathways individuals navigate. While a primary route accounts for nearly 10,000 cases, dozens of other, smaller pathways highlight the diverse circumstances of those seeking safety. An asylum-seeker’s country of origin remains a critical determinant, with refugee recognition rates for the top 10 nationalities in Chad ranging from as low as 5.6 per cent to as high as 83.1 per cent in 2024.

Conversely, the data also highlights the protection needs of Chadian nationals abroad, revealing stark inconsistencies in asylum outcomes. Recognition rates for Chadians in the top ten asylum countries fluctuated dramatically, from over 64 per cent in one country to a mere 0.2 per cent in another, underscoring the fragmented nature of the international protection regime. Together, these trends paint a picture of a system stretched to its limits, emphasizing the urgent need for increased resources, capacity building, and international solidarity to ensure timely and equitable access to asylum for all who seek it.

AI Insight: Bar chart of asylum applications and decisions in Chad from 2019 to 2024, where case numbers were moderate for several years before a dramatic spike to over 8,000 in a recent year., This bar chart presents the annual totals for asylum applications and decisions in Chad for the period 2019 to 2024. The data is categorized by the stage of the asylum process. The vertical axis measures the total number of cases, while the horizontal axis represents the years.

A statistical analysis of the underlying data, which covers 21 observations across the years, reveals a highly skewed distribution. While the mean number of cases for any given category in a year is 1,303, the values range from 0 to a maximum of 8,221. The 75th percentile is 1,002, indicating that the vast majority of observations are relatively low, but the maximum value represents a significant outlier. This points to an exceptional event in one of the years, likely 2023 or 2024, causing a massive surge in asylum-related activities. This surge is probably linked to the conflict in neighboring Sudan, which began in April 2023 and has led to a large-scale influx of refugees into Chad. The subtitle clarifies that these figures may represent multiple applications from a single individual, reflecting the total caseload processed.

AI Insight: Alluvial diagram of Refugee Status Determination decision flows in Chad, where the paths of 25,161 individual cases are traced through various stages to their final recognized or rejected status in 2024., This alluvial diagram provides a detailed breakdown of 25,161 Refugee Status Determination (RSD) decisions recorded in Chad in 2024. The visualization illustrates the flow of asylum cases through different stages of the determination process. Each vertical axis represents a distinct stage or attribute, and the colored bands, or flows, between them represent the number of individuals transitioning from one status to another. The width of each band is directly proportional to the number of people it represents. The underlying data indicates 72 distinct pathways. The largest single flow contains 9,838 individuals, suggesting a primary outcome or pathway for a significant portion of the applicants. In contrast, 50% of the pathways represent groups of 200 or fewer individuals, highlighting the varied journeys within the RSD system. This chart allows for an in-depth analysis of decision outcomes, revealing the proportions of cases that result in refugee status, other forms of protection, or rejection.

AI Insight: Area chart of cumulative asylum applications versus decisions in Chad from 2020 to 2026, where the number of applications consistently exceeds decisions, indicating a growing processing backlog over time., This area chart provides a comparative analysis of the cumulative number of asylum applications registered and first instance decisions made in Chad for the period 2020 to 2026. The vertical axis represents the cumulative total, while the horizontal axis denotes the year.

The chart displays two overlapping areas: one for total applications and one for total decisions. The area for applications is consistently larger and positioned above the area for decisions throughout the entire period. The widening vertical gap between the top boundary of the ‘decisions’ area and the top boundary of the ‘applications’ area visually represents the growing number of cases pending a first instance decision.

From a statistical standpoint, the data shows a continuous increase in both metrics, but the rate of incoming applications outpaces the system’s processing capacity. This trend signifies a mounting backlog, which directly impacts the average processing time for asylum-seekers. For UNHCR and its partners, this visualization is a critical tool for monitoring the efficiency of the asylum system, identifying resource gaps, and advocating for increased capacity to ensure timely access to protection for persons of concern in Chad.

Recognition Rates

AI Insight: Bar chart of Refugee Recognition Rates in Chad in 2024 for the top 10 countries of origin, where rates vary significantly from 5.6% to 83.1%., This horizontal bar chart displays the Refugee Recognition Rate in Chad for 2024, focusing on the top 10 countries of origin with the highest number of asylum decisions. The recognition rate is the percentage of asylum decisions that result in granting refugee status.

Statistically, the average recognition rate across these ten countries is 50.1%, with a median of 49.8%. However, the data reveals a substantial disparity in outcomes based on nationality. The recognition rates range widely, from a minimum of 5.6% to a maximum of 83.1%. The total number of decisions made also varies considerably, from 56 for one country of origin to 11,875 for another. The analysis indicates that an asylum seeker’s country of origin is a critical factor in the outcome of their application in Chad, with some nationalities having a much higher probability of being granted protection than others.

AI Insight: Bar chart of the 2024 refugee recognition rate for nationals from Chad, where rates vary widely among the top 10 countries of asylum, from a high of 64.4% to a low of 0.2%., This vertical bar chart displays the refugee recognition rates for asylum seekers from Chad in 2024, focusing on the ten countries of asylum that processed the highest number of total decisions. Each bar represents one country, and its height corresponds to the percentage of Chadian nationals granted refugee status.

Statistical analysis reveals significant disparities in asylum outcomes. Across these ten countries, the average refugee recognition rate is 21.5%, but the standard deviation is high at 21.6%, indicating substantial variation. The rates span from a maximum of 64.4% to a minimum of just 0.2%. The median rate is 16.0%, meaning half of these countries have a recognition rate below this value. The total number of decisions made in these countries, which determines their inclusion in the chart, ranges from 1,161 to 26,533. This wide variance in recognition rates suggests differing national asylum policies or interpretations of conditions in Chad among the top receiving countries.

Solutions

Durable Solutions: An Uneven Path Forward

The ultimate goal of international protection is to find safe, dignified, and lasting solutions for those forced to flee. However, the path to achieving these solutions—be it voluntary repatriation, local integration, or resettlement—is rarely linear. The data reveals that progress is often characterized by volatility, subject to global shocks, shifting political will, and the complexities of resolving protracted situations. An examination of trends in Chad offers a compelling illustration of this dynamic.

Behind the stark numbers of displacement lies a story of concentrated efforts to end exile for thousands. In 2022, a remarkable 34,063 durable solutions were achieved for refugees in Chad, a significant peak in a multi-year trend. This surge followed a period of near-complete standstill, where solutions plummeted to just 36 in 2020 and 150 in 2021, largely attributable to the global travel and operational restrictions imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic. The data underscores the profound vulnerability of solutions pathways to external shocks, which can halt years of progress in an instant. Encouragingly, efforts have since rebounded, with a projected 7,531 solutions for 2025, indicating a sustained commitment from the government and its partners.

A deeper analysis reveals a critical nuance in Chad’s protection landscape: the number of solutions implemented consistently and significantly outpaces the number of new refugee status recognitions. In 2022, for instance, solutions exceeded new recognitions by a factor of more than 50. This disparity suggests that the majority of solutions are being found for refugees in long-standing, protracted situations, rather than for more recent arrivals. It points to a concerted strategy to resolve historic caseloads, allowing individuals and families who have been displaced for years, and in some cases decades, to finally rebuild their lives. While new crises demand immediate attention, this focus on established populations is vital to preventing generational displacement and reducing the long-term strain on host communities.

AI Insight: Column chart of the number of solutions for forcibly displaced people in Chad from 2019 to 2025, where the numbers fluctuate dramatically, with a significant peak in 2022 and very low numbers in 2020 and 2021., This column chart displays the annual trends in durable solutions for forcibly displaced people across borders in Chad, with data from 2019 to 2024 and projections for 2025. The data reveals extreme volatility in the number of solutions implemented over this period.

Statistical Analysis: - 2019: The period began with 3,932 solutions. - 2020-2021: A sharp decline is observed, with the number of solutions plummeting to just 9 in 2020 and 38 in 2021. This near-cessation of solutions could be attributed to external factors such as the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which restricted movement and resettlement activities. - 2022: A dramatic surge occurred, with the number of solutions reaching a peak of 8,516. This suggests a significant resumption and possible acceleration of solutions programs post-pandemic or in response to a specific situation. - 2023: The number of solutions decreased to 2,486, a considerable drop from the previous year’s high but still above the 2020-2021 levels. - 2024: An increase to 4,522 solutions is recorded. - 2025 (Projected): The trend is projected to continue upward, with an expected 8,195 solutions, nearing the 2022 peak.

Overall, the trend is characterized by instability rather than steady growth, highlighting the vulnerability of solutions programs to external shocks and policy shifts. The major peak in 2022 and the projected high for 2025 indicate periods of concentrated effort to find durable solutions for the displaced population in Chad.

AI Insight: Line chart of refugee recognitions and available solutions in Chad from 2019 to 2025, where the number of solutions greatly exceeds the number of recognitions in most years., This line chart provides a comparative analysis of refugee recognitions and durable solutions in Chad for the period 2019 to 2025. The data highlights a significant and persistent gap between the two metrics.

Refugee Recognitions (a): This metric, representing individuals granted refugee status, shows a generally increasing trend with some volatility. The number of recognitions was 67 in 2019, decreased to 42 in 2020, and dropped to zero in 2021. It then surged to 658 in 2022, rose further to 789 in 2023, and peaked at 3,232 in 2024, before dropping to 274 in 2025.

Solutions (b): This metric, which typically includes voluntary repatriation, resettlement, and local integration, demonstrates high variability. It started at 15,729 in 2019, plummeted to just 36 in 2020, and slightly recovered to 150 in 2021. A massive peak occurred in 2022 with 34,063 solutions. The numbers for subsequent years were 9,943 (2023), 18,087 (2024), and 7,531 (2025).

Comparative Analysis: The number of available solutions has substantially surpassed the number of refugee recognitions in almost every year of the observed period. The disparity was most pronounced in 2022, when solutions (34,063) were more than 50 times higher than recognitions (658). The only exception to this trend was in 2020, when recognitions (42) slightly outnumbered solutions (36). Overall, the data indicates that Chad’s capacity or implementation of durable solutions operates at a much larger scale than its formal recognition of new refugees.